===Study shows risky, least
risky housing markets===
This was in REAL Trends E-mail Update Friday, November 10th,
2006
Some California homeowners may
see home prices decline over the next couple of years,
according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a Walnut Creek
(CA)–based private mortgage insurer. PMI produces a
quarterly U.S. Market Risk Index based on local economic
conditions, income, and interest rates. The statistical
model estimates the probability of falling home prices over
the next two years.
Eight of the 10 riskiest home
markets are in California,with
San Diego as the riskiest, according to the
analysis. They are:
1. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos (CA), 60.3 percent
2. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville (CA), 60.1 percent
3. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward (CA), 60 percent
4. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine (CA), 59.9 percent
5. Nassau-Suffolk (NY), 59.8 percent
6. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (CA), 59.6 percent
7. Boston-Quincy (MA), 59.6 percent
8. Providence-New Bedford-Fall River (RI/MA), 59 percent
9. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale (CA), 59 percent
10. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (CA), 58.9 percent
The report picks markets in Texas and the Midwest as the
10 least at
risk of price declines,
with
Pittsburgh as the least risky. The
least risky markets are:
1. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown (TX), 8.8 percent
2. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro (TN), 8.6 percent
3. San Antonio (TX), 7.8 percent
4. Fort Worth-Arlington (TX) (MSAD), 7.6 percent
5. Columbus (OH), 7.4 percent
6. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor (OH), 7.4 percent
7. Cincinnati-Middletown, (OH/KY), 7.2 percent
8. Memphis (TN/MS/AK), 6.8 percent
9. Indianapolis-Carmel (IN), 6.3 percent
10. Pittsburgh (PA), 6.1 percent
